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Interesting/Good news - Peter Hentges

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November 2nd, 2004

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07:15 am - Interesting/Good news
Down the page a ways at http://www.electoral-vote.com, we find this tidbit:
As I have discussed repeatedly, normally people with a cell phone but no landline are not polled. Most of these are in the 18-29 year old group. Up until now, no one has known how their absence from the polling data might affect the results. Zogby has now conducted a very large (N = 6039) poll exclusively on cell phones using SMS messaging to get a feeling of how they will vote. The results are that they go strongly for Kerry, 55% to 40%, with a margin of error of only 1.2%. If they all vote tomorrow, the pollsters are going to spend the rest of the week wiping egg from their faces. But historically, younger voters have a miserable turnout record, so the pollsters need not yet stock up on paper towels.
Given the efforts that I've seen to get out the vote among young voters (from vans taking people for early voting from the U of MN to the voting guide on http://www.indyvoter.org specifically targeting young voters) I would guess that turnout for these 18-29 year olds is going to be better than the powers-that-be suspect. I say, buy stock in paper towels....
Current Mood: excitedexcited

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Date:November 2nd, 2004 07:38 am (UTC)
I've been talking about this for a couple of weeks--so much so that even my 17-year-old can repeat it, and he isn't yet very politically aware. They haven't been polling cell-phone users, and the numbers of those who are 18 and over and use cell phones exclusively are enormous.

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